With the election of conservative administrations in France, Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany, as well as the distinct revival of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom, the right appears to be enjoying somewhat of a political revival on the continent. This is a marked shift from a decade ago when Europe experienced the renaissance of social democracy – a movement that garnered support by successfully blending both the aspirations and social consciences of the individual. Nevertheless, whilst the ‘Third Way’ or ‘Die Neue Mitte’ gave birth to a social democratic revival in Europe, it is hard to claim that such an equivalent exists on the right. With this in mind, this week’s Knowledgeshop looks at the perceptible shift of European politics to the right and whether this represents a seismic shift in European voting patterns, or merely a series of mini tremors.

Another one bites the dust

Although not as definite as death or taxes, the failure of an Italian government to see through its entire five year term runs pretty close. Having served under two-years as Prime Minister, Romano Prodi resigned after losing a vote of confidence in the Senate. Prodi’s tenure as Prime Minister – and leader of the governing coalition, L’Unione – was incredibly volatile. With the near impossible task of fusing the interests of the coalition, which included both centrist elements (La Margherita) and unreconstructed communists (Rifondazione Comunista), Prodi struggled to find a consensus on how to tackle some of the most pressing issues facing Italy: economic decline, organised crime, the current account deficit, unemployment, and most of all – averting demographic catastrophe.

Following Prodi’s resignation, new legislative elections were announced for the 13th and 14th April. Remarkably, opinion polls have Silvio Berlusconi, the two-time Prime Minister and arch nemesis of the left, ahead by over ten points. Berlusconi’s new political movement, Partito del Popolo della Libertà, is staunchly conservative in its outlook, with family values, anti-immigration, hard work, Christianity and the free market forming the basis of what appears to be a winning formula. The same could be said of the French President Nicolas Sarkozy whose platform – stratégie de rupture – of law and order and getting France “back to work”, swept aside the charm of Ségolène Royal to win the Presidential election in 2007. The Phénomène de Sarko continued to June’s legislative elections as the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP) won a comfortable majority in both chambers. Months later, Denmark’s Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen witnessed the re-election of his right-leaning (VDLP-PP) coalition for a third consecutive term in a one-time social democratic heartland.

In the preceding 18 months, conservative leaning administrations were triumphant in Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. In Sweden, Fredrik Reinfeldt’s Moderate Party defeated the governing Social Democrats – who have governed the country for 65 of the last 75 years – on a platform of privatisation, free markets, personal liberty, and anti-immigration. Despite Sweden’s buoyant economic growth, the economy formed a central part of the debate, particularly due to Sweden’s lacklustre job creation rate: not a single net job has been created in the private sector in Sweden since 1950.

In Germany, a better than expected performance from the Social Democrats led the country’s first ‘Grand Coalition’ in almost forty years, with the CDU/CSU alliance forming the majority. Thus, Angela Merkel, a conservative from the east and protégé of Helmut Kohl, became Germany’s first female Chancellor. Whilst the coalition has been tenuous at best, Merkel’s approval rating has hovered at around 70% and the CDU/CSU alliance looks poised to take an absolute majority in the next federal election – pending a deal with the liberal Free Democrats.

Troubled waters?

Nevertheless, although several European governments have elected conservative parties, several have fallen from power or faced stubborn resilience from the left-leaning administrations. In October the Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczy?ski’s Law and Justice party were removed from power by the more centrist Civic Platform, led by Donald Tusk. However, it should be noted that in Poland Law and Justice won an additional eleven seats and were only removed from office due to poor showings with their two junior coalition members League of Polish Families and Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland.

In Spain the governing Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) is still ahead of the conservative Popular Party with the polls only a matter of weeks away. Despite a 4% poll lead over the PP, the PSOE are struggling to halt the wave of public woes regarding the state of Spain’s economy. The PP clearly smells blood and has decided to run its election campaign over the economy, an area they still hold great credibility having slashed unemployment into single digits under the leadership of José María Aznar. Spain’s construction and housing boom appears to be drawing to a close as credit dries up, whilst inflation on energy and food has also proven problematic. In a recent poll as many as 70% of Spaniards claimed they were “struggling to make ends meet.” To make up for the supposed economic malaise (growth is still expected to be 3%), Zapatero has embarked on a major crackdown on the Basque terrorist group ETA.  Luckily for the PSOE, the majority also believe that the economic malaise will only be temporary. Unfortunately for the PP and Spanish conservatives, the election may be a few months too early.

What is right?

Although the fortunes of right-leaning European political parties have improved considerably in the last few years, the belief that this is giving birth to a Euro-wide re-launch of conservatism is rather far fetched as the parties involved are so disparate.

Whilst the UMP, CDU, Centre Party and VDLP all express their vocal support for European integration, the British Conservative Party and the Partito del Popolo della Libertà, are more Eurosceptic. This is similar with economic outlook as well. As David Cameron’s Conservatives continue to trumped market forces, Sarkozy has been overtly hostile to them criticising the “immoral speculation” of capital markets. Additionally, the French President has repeatedly played the ‘economic patriotism’ card, criticising moves by foreign banks to acquire SocGen as well as engineering the merger between Gaz de France and Suez, an engineering monopoly that the government holds a 40% stake in. Even when Sarkozy was Finance Minister he ordered the French supermarket chain Carrefour to cut prices, banks to lower fees, and even set controls on electricity prices. Only in September Juan Delgado, a research fellow with the Bruegel think tank stated that “Sarkozy hasn’t changed the traditional French industrial policy. His promises of more market-based reforms haven’t been in evidence yet.” Even in industries where Sarkozy’s advisers had called for liberalising – such as the highly protected taxi sector – the President appears to lack any zeal for a fight with unions. With his falling approval ratings, the President now appears to lack the political capital to implement even the most limited pro-growth policies. In response, could Sarkozy turn towards the same protectionist comfort zone of his predecessor, Jacques Chirac? Remember, Chirac was also elected on a platform of pension reform and tax cuts in 1995.

Sarkozy’s apparent commitment to France’s statist model is one that would make Cameron, Reinfeldt, Rasmussen, and Berlusconi, rather squeamish. Although Merkel is more pro-market than Sarkozy, she has recently sought to implement new laws that would curtail the power hedge funds. Although Merkel did cut corporation tax from nearly 39% to just under 30%, she was also responsible for the 3% hike in VAT to 19%, despite Germany’s consumption problem. It should be noted however, that her coalition with the Social Democrats may have required her to make such concessions.

A Common righteousness?

There are many factors behind the trend of centre-right governments sweeping Europe. Firstly, there is no monolithic Euro-conservative movement that even closely resembles that of socialism. Considering the solidarity and brotherhood that comes with the socialist international, this is hardly surprising. Nevertheless with such diverse views on the role of the market and the future of Europe it is hard to find much commonality – just look at Cameron’s attempts to withdraw the Conservative Party from the European People’s Party grouping. Two areas that may form part of a distinct brand of Euro-conservatism could be immigration and law and order as the centre-right struggles to wrestle the issue from extremists. This was particularly evident in the French Presidential elections where Sarkozy’s strong stance on immigration and crime saw the sudden erosion in support for Jean Marie Le Pen’s Front National. As Interior Minister Sarkozy was criticised for labelling rioters – predominantly of North African descent – “racaille”, a derogatory term despite its “rabble” translation. Only last week, Berlusconi claimed that the Italian left was “lax on illegal immigration and weak on crime”, whilst on the back of surging support for the National Democratic Party (NDP) the German Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has made noises about the failure of Germany’s Turkish population to integrate. In Spain, immigration remains the only area where the PP holds a sustained lead over the governing PSOE. Denmark’s coalition would fall apart without Pia Kjaersgaard’s far-right People’s Party.

Still different circumstances have determined the victories of each centre-right party – and are likely to do so. Much of Western Europe backed the third way in response to the tired, decadent administrations that had overseen the end of the Cold War. It may well be that the same parties that had dislodged their conservative opponents from office have fallen foul of the same governmental sclerosis that got them into office in the first place. Voters can scent tired governments. Perhaps Europe’s centre-right – no matter their differing domestic agendas – offers hope of change and renewal.