On May 14th Gordon Brown delivered his Draft Legislative Programme to Parliament, outlining his plans for Government for the 2008/09 session. With an election looming, can we see these Bills as the Government’s last chance to reclaim the agenda and drive the polls back up to favourable numbers? With the next Queen’s Speech in 2009 due to be delivered months before an election year, this week’s Knowledgeshop speculates whether this year’s legislative programme will effectively be this Government’s last.

Draft Legislative Programme

Even though a Prime Minister of the day might be accused of using his freedom to call the date of the General Election for an unfair advantage (something that has spectacularly backfired on Gordon Brown) this isn’t the only way the Government can use flexibility with dates to help a flagging poll rating.

With an early announcement of the Draft Legislative Programme this year, Gordon Brown has been accused of poll-chasing, trying to end a stream of bad press by filling the papers with positive Government action.

In this case though, it could be argued that this early preview is a guide to the last legislative programme of Gordon Brown’s Government. With a General Election almost guaranteed for 2010, the Queen’s Speech in 2009 would most likely be nothing more than a pumped up manifesto. It will leave little room for ambitious legislation.

For the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, it means that they can begin already to focus their researchers, policy advisors and spin doctors on the important topics for the year ahead. There is a wide range of important Bills to cover, from more attempts to reform both healthcare and welfare, to the Banking Reform Bill which will put into place new mechanisms to avoid repetitions of Northern Rock.

Gordon Brown introduced the preview of the Queen’s Speech on the grounds that it allowed greater time for consultation. In this case it might just allow greater time for the Opposition to prepare for the crucial year ahead. Perhaps Gordon forfeited the edge it might have afforded Labour had he kept his plans under wraps on this occasion. Has he traded a short term boost in the press for long term disadvantage? One might speculate that he must he be incredibly confident in this programme.

So little time…

Adding to the sense of an impending election is the Government’s decision to hold the Queen’s Speech in December. The date of December 3rd was confirmed by the Prime Minister’s Spokesperson on June 18th. As well as effectively adding a month to the spillover period (adding to the speculation that the Government needs more time to pass its 2007/2008 programme) it takes a month away from the next Parliamentary Session. It will allow for only one week of debate and one week of business before the Christmas recess. Can the Government afford this late start?

Regardless of one’s opinion on the current Government, there is no denying approval ratings, which after Northern Rock, the 10p tax rate, the local and mayoral elections and now the ever increasing fuel price/inflation crisis, have been consistently poor. Brown needs a sustained period of good governance coming into the 2009/10 parliamentary session to stand a chance of keeping Labour in power.

This will therefore largely rest on the programme of legislation announced in May. True, there would still be time to chance tack in late 2009 if the programme is poorly received. But this would be a risky strategy, with all the constraints that will be placed on what would essentially be a programme of legislation geared for the election. It is unlikely that Brown could have a poor year and then turn it all around in the months leading up to the General Election. This legislative programme needs to be seen as the beginning of the turnaround for Labour.

Bills, Bills, Bills

So can any early assessment be made about the issues that will dominate in 2009? The themes of the Bills are relatively clear: local empowerment, protecting the economy and helping the poor. As long as there are no unfortunately events in the months to come there is nothing significant regarding terrorism, which could play well for either party. Thought traditionally a strong Conservative issue, Labour has been doing well out of outflanking the Tories.

Localism is a feature of the Education and Skills, Policing and Crime Reduction, Business Rates Supplement, and of course the Community Empowerment Bills. This is something that the Conservatives have some headway on, not least because the Opposition is never overly keen on centralization and the Government will have some way to go in overcoming the perception of too much control from the centre. This raft of legislation is a good start, however, General Elections tend to rest on a few big themes. Local government isn’t usually one of them.

The Citizenship, Immigration and Borders Bill could also prove to be a key cornerstone for Labour. Restricting benefits for migrants, enforcing English: these are certainly no typical socialist proposals. If people are continuing to feel the pinch throughout next year, a perception that the Government is getting tough on migrants could be a significant vote winner. However, relying on traditional Tory ground to win votes might be a dangerous ploy for Labour.

It’s the Economy…

It could also be argued that relatively little can be taken from the Bills proposed. The economic outlook may well dictate proceedings, and we’ve seen recently how damaging this can be for the Government if they are seen to be mismanaging the situation. The Savings Gateway Bill may come to be seen as overly optimistic for those struggling on low incomes. We may still need to wait to see how this year’s Budget pans out and what is in next year’s before judgments can be made.

Furthermore, an analysis of the damaging headlines over the last year shows us that few of them related to specific legislation. It’s a mistake politicians often make, believing that successful legislation equates to votes. Certainly Northern Rock and the 10p tax rate have little if anything to do with Government legislation. The Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill caused as many problems for the Conservatives as it did for Labour. 42 days has of course been damaging and even though it’s out of the spotlight for now, it’s unlikely to remain so.

There have been some suggestions that we could see a record number of ping pongs on the Bill as the Lords dig their heels in. Their resolve may well be strengthened by Jack Straw’s announcement that Lords reform will be delayed until after the next election. If Lord Goldsmith and others keep up sustained opposition, it may well be that the only headlines on legislation will be bad ones for the Government.

Nostradamus

Of course, making predictions this far in advance is a poor science. Political commentators might well make a living out of it, but they are not held to account. We can certainly try and familiarise ourselves with the approaching Bills in the hopes it will give just rewards, but what the actual political battle lines end up being drawn over, is very hard to guess. The dominance of the economy cannot be underestimated and it may well be the deciding factor.